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November 28, 2005 4:00 AM PST
Cost questions dog Blu-ray DVD's lead
For more than a year now, a bitter public relations war has been waged between supporters of Blu-ray and a rival Toshiba-backed technology known as HD DVD. Both are high-capacity discs that will support the distribution of high-definition versions of movies, with much better picture quality than what's possible with today's technology.
Blu-ray appears to have the lead, with most major movie studios saying they'll release films in the format next year. That's led to new concerns about mass production of DVDs in the new format. Since it represents a major break with past DVD and CD techniques, some worry Blu-ray will be expensive to support--at least in the short term--and could jack up prices for consumers.
What's new:
Blu-ray appears to be edging out its next-generation DVD rival, HD DVD. But some manufacturers say it will be expensive to produce.
Bottom line:
The debate over next-generation formats remains mired in politics and spin, but the real cost of discs and players will help consumers make their own decisions at the cash register next year.
That Blue-ray discs may start out pricey shouldn't be a shock. They face a classic curve for new technologies, which are initially expensive as manufacturers work with small numbers of orders and learn how to streamline the process. Sony also disputes those high-priced estimates.
"If there is a (cost) difference, that has yet to be determined," said Sony Pictures' Adrian Alperovich, the studio's executive vice president in charge of new business development. "There are (manufacturers) on both sides of the equation. If there is a difference in price either way, we think it will be minimal."
Alperovich argues that if there is a short-term price gap, the advantages of Blu-ray--mainly more capacity and flexibility for things like gaming--should outweigh that concern. But traditional engineering questions about Blu-ray have taken on a testier tone in this scrap.
Blu-ray's rival, the HD DVD format, relies on a reasonably well understood process. HD DVDs are constructed very similarly to existing DVDs, and the basic discs can be made with relatively minor modifications to existing DVD manufacturing lines.
Blu-ray discs, on the other hand, require completely different equipment. Most of the major disc replicators--the companies that make DVDs and CDs--now have a test line or two up and running, but hard data on production costs remains scant.
The format's backers at the Blu-ray Disc Association have repeatedly predicted that costs would come down quickly and be almost immediately competitive with those of HD DVD.
Yet one senior executive at a major disc replication facility said he has long been worried about Blu-ray costs.
"We feel that some of the (Blu-ray backers') statements are setting unrealistic cost and price expectations for the content owners they are courting," said the executive, who asked to remain anonymous owing to a close working relationship with Blu-ray companies. "They're right at the zero point in terms of operational knowledge."
Spin, or real concerns?For the most part, things like the technical details of the manufacturing process, of video compression and of disc formats are irrelevant to consumers. But the prospect of a next-generation DVD format war, similar to the battle between VHS and Sony's Betamax in the mid-1970s, has chilled the industry. Analysts at Sanford Bernstein estimated that media companies could collectively lose as much as $16 billion over seven years if HD DVD and Blu-ray were launched without a clear favorite, because without a clear-cut winner, consumers would be leery of buying one or the other.
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If this is the case then the expected cost to manufacture the discs can't be that high.
Also, with gamers being bigger earlier adopters there will initially be more Blu-Ray enabled devices in the home than HD-DVD.
New technology always costs more. Look at DVDs when they came out first. The players were really expensive and so were the discs.
Now £30 will get you a DVD player and onlne you can get the latest releases for as little as £15.
Quote about the PS2 launch from :http://www.emulationstation.com/systemlist.asp?ID=24
"...during the console's first weekend of release, while DVD software sales in Japan increased between two to four times..."
I expect the PS3 will have the same impact for Blu-Ray movies.
http://otherthingsnow.blogspot.com
I realize that PS3 will have BlueRay, and that's fine even if HDDVD wins in Hollywood. I don't use my PS2 as a DVD player, and if I get a PS3 I wouldn't expect to use that as my movie player device either. BlueRay may end up nothing more than the disk format Sony uses for their games data, and like weird disk formats for Gamecube, Greamcast, etc. that's fine even if BlueRay loses the movie industry.
I wonder if those claiming they will ship movies in both formats will make a hybrid disk with Blueray on one side and HDDVD on the other side, similar to the hybrid specs including traditional red-laser DVD format on one side. It'd be annoying to find players that only do one format or the other, and have to make sure you buy the right version of the movie off the store shelf. I'd be afraid that anyone else in my family buying movies for me as gifts would likely get the wrong format if they are in seperate packages. I already have trouble getting the whole full-screen/widescreen thing through their heads, especially as I prefer widescreen and others in my family prefer full-screen, I often get the wrong one and have to exchange or trash it and re-buy it myself. Once in a great while I myself don't pay enough attention and end up buying a full-screen by mistake and have to exchange it.
I can see this all possibly being quite a mess for a while, and I'll wait it out until the sorts of people who don't know the difference _can't_ buy the wrong thing, before I bother to get involved. Until my mom can buy something without having things explained and written down, and she doesn't have to be careful at the store, then HD movie formats and players are going to suck.
http://p2pnet.net/story/7124
I have never replaced scratched disks.... I am amazed that some of the largest and richest tech companies retreat to such lame tactict
1) HD DVD are easier to produce and at a significantly lower cost (despite whatever Sony claims).
2) HD DVDs will be in the market much earlier than Blu Ray.
3) Blu ray is backed by almost every big publisher, HD DVD by just a few.
4) Blu ray seems to aim to have more control over the distriution of content, regardless of them having an implementation of Managed copy (they added that one quite reluctantly).
5) Regardless of copy protection methods, everything can be copied at a certain cost if it can be seen and heard.
If this was a signle market, I'd say fact 3 would imply Blu ray wind hands down. No content=no market. But it is actually about two markets and their intersection: legal market and black (pirate) market, which exists and it's hughe, regardless of it being illegal. Pirate market cares about cost, market share of the technology, copying potential and timing. The legal market depends on copy protection and big firm support.
Thus, HD-DVD will start with a time lead, and get some sales in the legal markets and lots in the (hughe) pirate market (first with non HQ versions of movies, then with HQ versions as they are officially released on HD-DVD and blu ray. Blu ray will come later and be much stronger in the legal market. But since the HD DVD will already be there on the pirate, mostly pirate and semi legal homes (as well as some 100% legal homes) and it will be hard for the labels to convince those potential customers (ignoring the 100% pirate ones) of buying a second device, HD DVD will stay and the Blu Ray labels will probably decide to recover some of that market by launching HD DVD versions of their movies, killing any advantage Blu Ray will have for video. Elliminating this barrier, HD DVD will win in the long term thanks to the cost advantage.
Quite speculative, but mostly probable.
Isn't it ironic, though, that the last two major advances in home entertainment formats have been battled out by Japanese, rather than American, companies?
proponents may not yet admit it. The Maxell holographic disk will
blow them both away. And well it should.
Sorry Toshiba. Sorry, Sony. You two spent too much time arguing
when you should have been cooperating. Now, neither of you are in
the game any more.
Having that said, win or lose, blu-ray disk are still going to hit production unline HD-DVD. Because sony is using blu-ray in PS3, and I really dont think they are going to change their mind to HD-DVD even if blu-ray loses.
__________________________________
R.K.
http://www.Remove-All-Spyware.com/
You can still buy VHS movies and VHS players. There is a huge supply of DVD movies available. Even if you take out VHS that still leaves 3 formats.
Keep in mind that the new HD-DVD and Blu-ray players will support traditional DVD playeres for a long time to come. Where is the economic incentive to leap? With the launch of HD-DVD and Blu-ray you will see DVD prices drop, that is an incentive to stay with DVD, while cutting the profits for the content producers.
http://www.tgdaily.com/2005/10/02/interview_hp_bluray_1/
- PS3 Might Have Blu-Ray, But ...
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by rob2nelson
January 11, 2006 11:26 PM PST
- The PS3 might have the Blu-Ray disc drive, but if it does and it sells for less than $500, Sony will be taking a big hit on each PS3 sold just as Microsoft did with the XBox. In other words, Sony will probably be selling its PS3s well below cost, at least until production costs can be brought down through increases in efficiency, etc. Perhaps this is what Sony intends so as to increase the market share of Blu-Ray devies in the high-def market. In order to do this it might be willing to incur losses which it hopes to be only short-lived. Other companies, however, producing Blu-Ray devices might not be so willing or so able. Thus, after a while the PS3 might become the only Blu-Ray device produced, as other manufacturers discover that their higher priced models cannot compete with the lower-priced HD-DVD models in consumer markets, especially as they might not have the same capabilities as the PS3, in terms of other entertainment potential besides being able to play moves in high-def. If Sony finds itself in this position, its Blu-Ray techonology will go the way of its BetaMax technology, as the studios will switch to the format most supported by consumers and manufacturers. In the end, PS3 owners might end up being the only owners of Blu-Ray technology.
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